HSI has opened higher to 21004 on Tuesday morning but then went down to as low as 20119 on Wednesday (900 points in 2 days). It then bounced back up to close at 20854 finally (600 points up in 2 days). Total trading turnover was lower than last week.
From the day chart, the rebound made on Thursday and Friday apparently carried lower trading volume than the drop in Tuesday and Wednesday. In this regard, we did not see enough bull power to reverse the bear trend yet.
As mentioned last week, the current movement of the index looked like what happened in August 2011. Now the index has resembled the first 2 weeks of the movement (see the red 2 ellipsis). Based on it, we may expect the index would sidewalk for 2 more weeks in a big range (19400-21500) (c.f. 18900-21000 in 2011 August).
Outlook for next week
Sidewalk with big range
20119 – This week’s low
19426 – Previous week’s low
21104 – This week’s high
21423 – Potential downard wave 1 bottom. Overcome this point (close) to break bear model